Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Future of Climate Change
Every time this comes up, almost daily in fact, I shake my head in amazement at the utter stupidity of the responses.
It isn't going to happen, that is, there will be no reduction in greenhouse gas production.
Why not?
The evidence is as follows.
1) We have known about the threat for more than 20 years and in that time the production of GG has actually gone up, by alarming amounts. As large nations such as India and China, all of SE Asia and in Africa, countries such as Nigeria, have began industrializing, the demand for fossil fuels has increased. Those people want cars, consumer goods, better living conditions, more food, etc. The result has been more GG production. Their governments want it too and they aren't going to deny their people what they want.
2) Per capita reduction of GGs in G20 nations has been almost non-existent, and frankly, pointless, if it was even possible. In Canada for example, we are only 33M people but we are a resource based nation, producing oil, gas, forestry products, minerals and so on that the rest of the world wants, potash for example. We are so spread out geographically that we must drive 1,000 kms per month just to survive - get food, medical attention, education, never mind the things that actually make life worth living, such as entertainment, adventure, finding a mate, etc.
3) Then there is food to consider: we have no seasonal vegetables for the winter, so we get 'em from California, rice from Asia and no locally grown meat is possible because of government regulation, but that is a separate topic. re: vegetarianism, Don't think for a moment that enough calories are available from local veggies to survive a Canadian winter, outside of a city.
Sure we can, and did, reduce our personal carbon footprint by a ton per year (a gov't program of 2008) but that 5% was only available for trimming in the first year. What then can you do in subsequent years? Not gonna happen.
4) Taking the large picture, if world population grows by 50% (measuring from 1999 when we had 6B )
by 2050, how could we reduce GG output to climate safe levels without impoverishing our lives, living in large underground communes to save on heating costs, etc. - even then you would have to truck all our food to us. We could jam everybody onto Vancouver island but then there would be no industry because workers must live where the resources are. So, it ain't gonna happen.
5) There is no political will to enforce zero population growth. The people want better lives which means electricity, which means GG production. Forget solar and wind, the figures show that investment isn't there fast enough to employ it and forces exist to prevent its widespread application, maybe by 3000AD. Too late.
It will have to be nature that curtails our population growth by disease, famine, and disaster. We have shown no inclination to stop it ourselves.
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